The International Energy Agency gave environmentalists cause for celebration earlier this month when it reported that carbon dioxide emissions in 2016 remained unchanged from the levels reached in 2014 and 2015. Analysts are hopeful that this could represent the end of the upward trend that CO2 emissions have seen since 1980.
THE ENERGY COLLECTIVE — Emissions stalled despite continuing growth in the global economy, thanks to greater use of renewable energy, productive efforts in the direction of better energy efficiency, and replacing coal with natural gas for power generation. At 32.1 gigatons, CO2 emissions in 2016 stayed unchanged in Europe and increased in most of the emerging economies, bar China, which, along with the U.S., was the only country where the emissions actually fell. In the U.S., the decline brought emissions to their lowest level since 1992, with the IEA noting that between 1992 and 2016, the country’s economy grew by 80 percent. So far so good – renewable energy accounted for the bulk of the increase in energy generation last year, economies transformed to accommodate better energy efficiency initiatives, and natural gas continued squeezing out coal. However, IEA’s chief Fatih Birol advised wary optimism, saying this was just the beginning of a trend, and a lot more work would need to be done in the years ahead to start cutting CO2 emissions. Indeed, in a more recent news release, the IEA said that the world needs “an energy transition of exceptional scope, depth and speed” in order to meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting temperature rises to below 2°C. This transition, the IEA said, involves capping any further rises in CO2 emissions before 2020 and cutting them by as much as 70 percent by 2050. Among the targets that the world has to meet to enable this transformation, the IEA lists the following: 7 out of 10 new cars need to be electric (versus 1 in 100 currently); the entire building stock of the world will need to be retrofitted for greater energy efficiency; $3.5 trillion will need to be invested in the energy industry every year until 2050 – that’s twice the current level of investments. These targets certainly seem challenging. The global economy will continue to grow, and it’s anyone’s guess whether this growth will be matched by the growth in renewable energy use and energy efficiency advancements. The fact that emissions in Europe stayed the same instead of dropping, given the continent’s commitment to green energy, already casts a shadow on the sunny mood brought about by IEA’s CO2 report. And then there’s some more bad news. It’s not just CO2 emissions that need to be curbed in a bid to limit climate change – methane is about 30 times more potent as a heat-trapping gas, and there was a piece of not so good news recently regarding methane. A peer-reviewed study published in the Environmental Science and Technology found that methane emissions from natural gas-fueled power plants and oil refineries may be substantially higher than previously believed, thanks to leaks. In fact, the authors have estimated that hourly methane emissions from gas-fired plants could be between 21 and 120 times higher than currently reported by plant operators in the U.S. Together, the emissions of gas-fired plants and refineries could be 20 times higher than reported. The results of this study are not conclusive, and research will continue, but they do raise the question of how reliable the emissions data is that numerous reports and forecasts are based on, driving legislation and initiatives aimed at curbing the harmful effects that certain chemicals have on the atmosphere. This is just one more question to add to a growing list: How will governments and carmakers incentivize people to buy electric cars (and how much will the recharging infrastructure cost)? Where will the additional $1.75 trillion for energy sector investment come from? How will the whole global building stock be retrofitted, and how much it will cost? We need to find some plausible answers to these questions, urgently, if the IEA is to be proven right.
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Last year saw global renewable energy generation capacity increase by 161 gigawatts (GW), the International Renewable Energy Agency, IRENA, said on Thursday.
CNBC — IRENA said that, by the end of 2016, the planet's renewable energy capacity had hit an estimated 2,006 GW. It added that its data showed renewable energy capacity grew by 8.7 percent, with 71 GW of new solar energy leading the way. Wind energy grew by 51 GW, hydropower increased by 30 GW and bioenergy 9 GW. "We are witnessing an energy transformation taking hold around the world, and this is reflected in another year of record breaking additions in new renewable energy capacity," IRENA Director-General Adnan Z. Amin said in a statement. "This growth in deployment emphasizes the increasingly strong business case for renewables which also have multiple socio-economic benefits in terms of fueling economic growth, creating jobs and improving human welfare and the environment," Amin added. Accelerating this momentum would need extra investment "in order to move decisively towards decarbonising the energy sector and meet climate objectives," he went on to say. IRENA's announcement came on the same day the U.K. government released energy statistics which showed that renewable electricity generation in 2016 was 82.8 terawatt hours, down one per cent compared to 2015. In addition, the government said that renewables' share of electricity generation fell to 24.4 percent in 2016, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year. Capacity for renewable energy at the end of 2016 was 34.7 GW, representing an increase of 13.7 percent The US Solar Energy Industries Association has launched a nationwide consumer education campaign in an effort to inform and protect solar consumers with the fundamentals of solar, while also further simplifying the process of choosing to go solar.
CLEANTECHNICA — Announced on Wednesday, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the country’s solar industry trade association, launched a nationwide effort to educate and protect solar consumers including a series of new disclosure forms to help consumers compare and better understand the solar offers available to them from competing solar companies. These forms will aim to provide solar customers with a better understanding of the fundamentals of solar, helping them to ask the right questions, empower them to compare competing solar company offers, and know what they should expect from their solar system over the life of the system. The disclosure forms will be accompanied by further educational material that the SEIA is providing to a range of state bodies, including governors, attorneys general, state consumer advocates, public utility commissions, solar companies, financial institutions, lead generators, federal agencies, and other allied organizations across all 50 states. In addition to the provision of these resources, the SEIA is also intending a media campaign so that consumers will not only have access to these materials, but also know they exist in the first place. “We’ve been developing top-of-the-line resources for years — now it’s about spreading the word and getting these resources into the hands of people who need it,” said SEIA’s president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “Solar is still a new power choice for millions of Americans, and it’s critical that we cultivate a well-informed customer base. By doing their homework and making use of these tools, consumers and stakeholders alike will feel confident and comfortable in the decision to go solar.” Everything is available to consumers free of charge through SEIA’s consumer protection portal, including consumer guides for going solar in both English and Spanish, guides for community solar and land leasing, and information for both consumers and industry. The SEIA hopes to continually evolve these resources and to provide more and improved tools for consumers as the solar industry continues to evolve. “The Better Business Bureau supports SEIA’s efforts to provide accountability and transparency that will help strengthen the industry and increase trust in the marketplace,” said Mary Power, CEO of the Council of Better Business Bureaus. “The disclosure forms released this week demonstrate SEIA’s commitment to building a strong industry while ensuring greater consumer protection.” “Using these resources benefits everyone — consumers, solar companies and financial institutions,” said Nick Mack, General Counsel of Spruce Finance and co-chair of the SEIA Consumer Protection Committee. “We feel strongly that solar companies across America, large and small, should be using these tools today.” Many of America’s biggest corporations including Apple Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. are sticking by their pledges to fight climate change even as President Donald Trump guts his predecessor’s environmental policies.
BLOOMBERG — Companies say their promises reflect their push to cut energy costs, head off activist pressure and address a risk to their bottom line in the decades to come. “This work is embedded in our business,” Wal-Mart spokesman Kevin Gardner said in an email. It’s “good for the business, our shareholders and customers; if ultimately we are able to positively impact the environment in the process, that’s a win too.” Wal-Mart was one of 81 companies that promised to reduce emissions in the run up to the 2015 Paris global climate negotiations. The company upped its targets last November, saying it would get half its power from renewable sources by 2025. Trump signed an order Tuesday that tells the Environmental Protection Agency to reconsider former President Barack Obama’s climate rules, and rescinds a series of orders Obama issued to embed consideration of climate change in government actions from where to lease buildings to whether to allow oil pipelines to be built. Companies need to move ahead on the climate change front no matter what Trump’s government does, Geoffrey M. Heal, a professor at Columbia Business School, said in a telephone interview. "They don’t have the luxury of denying," Gina McCarthy, head of the EPA under Obama, said on Bloomberg Television. "They have to invest wisely." Business’s biggest lobbying force supports Trump on this issue. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce welcomed Trump’s order calling that shift “vital to stimulating economic growth.” The group argues that Obama’s regulations held back economic growth, preventing business owners from constructing needed pipelines, roads and other infrastructure. It also warned that the climate push would lead to a jump in energy prices. But many of the group’s members and other corporate titans supported Obama’s Clean Power Plan, or have set their own goals. Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest beer-maker, also announced Tuesday that it would get 100 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2025. Nearly 90 companies have made similar pledges, according to the Sierra Club. "We believe climate change is real and the science is well accepted," General Electric Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt, wrote in an internal blog post shared by the company. "We hope that the United States continues to play a constructive role in furthering solutions to these challenges, and at GE, we will continue to lead with our technology and actions." Mars Inc., the maker of M&M’s, committed to eliminating its emissions entirely by 2040. Andy Pharoah, vice president of corporate affairs, said that Mars is “disappointed the administration has decided to roll back climate regulations.” ‘American competitiveness’ Technology companies including Apple, Amazon.com Inc, Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp. also expressed their support for Obama’s policies. “We believe that strong clean energy and climate policies, like the Clean Power Plan, can make renewable energy supplies more robust and address the serious threat of climate change while also supporting American competitiveness, innovation, and job growth,” the companies said in a joint statement after Trump’s order was signed. Other companies, while stopping short of criticizing the Trump administration, said they would keep pursuing lower emissions in their own operations. Procter & Gamble, Nestle Inc., Ikea, Levi Strauss & Co. and Best Buy Co., which all signed the 2015 pledge organized by the Obama administration, said they still intended to honor their commitments. “We will continue to integrate sustainability into our business practices, operations, innovation, brand building and culture,” Damon Jones, a spokesman for Procter & Gamble said. Many energy businesses welcomed Trump’s rollback. The Independent Petroleum Association of America, which represents oil and natural gas producers, joined the Chamber of Commerce in praising his move. So did the National Federation of Independent Business, which challenged the Clean Power Plan in court. “People are going to freeze in the dark because of the destruction of the reliable electric power grid under Obama and the Democrats,” Robert Murray, the president and CEO of coal-mining company Murray Energy Corp. said in an interview. “Mr. Trump is doing the right things.” Some environmental groups cautioned that action from the private sector, wasn’t enough to make up for the pullback in federal policy. “Policy is going to be required to get us where we need to be,” said Karen Palmer, research director at Resources for the Future. There's one simple fact that may just change your thoughts on renewable power. In a single hour, the amount of power from the sun that strikes the Earth is more than the entire world consumes in a year.
BUSINESS INSIDER — To put that in numbers, from the US Department of Energy: Each hour 430 quintillion Joules of energy from the sun hits the Earth. That's 430 with 18 zeroes after it! In comparison, the total amount of energy that all humans use in a year is about 410 quintillion Joules. The average American home used 39 billion Joules of electricity in 2015, to give you some context (that's 39 with only nine zeroes after it). Clearly, we have a source of virtually unlimited clean energy in the form of solar power — we're just not capturing it. In 2015, solar only provided 0.65% of the electricity used in the US, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Market forces and automation, aided by some government initiatives, have decreased the nation's reliance on coal in favor of natural gas and clean energy. Renewables — including solar, wind, hydropower, biomass and geothermal — now account for 13% of the total. Renewable energy doesn't increase our carbon footprint or exacerbate global warming like burning fossil fuels does. Scientists and a majority of Americans agree that we can't keep using oil and coal forever. Tesla CEO and energy visionary Elon Musk called changing the Earth's atmosphere without knowing the consequences "the dumbest experiment in history." One day, we'll be able to capture all of the energy the world needs from the sun. We have the technology right now. It's just going to take time, investment, and innovation. A new interactive map from The Solar Foundation allows visitors to see the impact of the solar industry at state, metropolitan area, county, and congressional district level for the United States in 2016. PV MAGAZINE — If the new data released by The Solar Foundation (TSF) this morning, which shows the solar industry having a $154 billion impact on the U.S. economy last year, can’t mobilize an army of Americans to fight for the right to control their own energy choices, then maybe the polling that shows 90% of Americans support the industry are flat out wrong. A new interactive map – assembled by TSF from the data it collected in its National Solar Jobs Census – provides the most detailed profile yet on how much the solar revolution is affecting the United States. It breaks down the already jaw-dropping 260,077 jobs nationally into such discrete, delectable pieces it’s hard to know where to start. Want overall national data? It can do that. State-level data? Absolutely. Metropolitan area, county, and congressional district level? Yep, yep and yep. Solar geeks will get lost in this data for hours, so go look at the map at your own risk (go look at the map – you’ll enjoy every second of it). “The solar industry is generating well-paying jobs everywhere from Detroit to Miami to Salt Lake City, and in states from Ohio to Texas to South Carolina,” said Andrea Luecke, president and executive director of TSF. “America’s solar energy boom adds tens of billions of dollars to our economy each year, all while providing an affordable, reliable, and local energy source.” As pv magazine reported at the time, the National Solar Jobs Census reported historic growth in the solar industry, reaching 25% nationwide. The new data reveals the growth wasn’t limited to the traditional solar states whose names everyone knows – California, Arizona, New Jersey, North Carolina and the like. In fact, the number of solar jobs increased in 44 of the 50 states from 2015 to 2016, and solar jobs grew by 50% or more in 21 of the 50 states. Other exciting data arises from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget-defined metropolitan-statistical areas (MSA), of which there are 382 in the United States. A MSA is defined as one or more adjacent counties or county equivalents that have at least one urban core area of at least 50,000 in population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties. Data gleaned from the MSAs revealed significant growth in many of the expected places: Texas, Florida and Georgia. pv magazine has covered the regulatory situations in Florida and Georgia extensively, and Americas editor Christian Roselund wrote the definitive piece on the Texas market in 2015. One place that was a huge surprise? My own home town of Cleveland.
According to the data, solar jobs in the Cleveland metropolitan area doubled, for a total of 1,632 solar workers in 2016. My Congressional district – The new map offers complete data on solar jobs in all 50 states, along with details on jobs by solar employment sector, percentages of women and veterans in the solar workforce, and more. And you can toggle between 2015 and 2016 data to compare the number of solar jobs year over year, watching the solar industry expand before your own eyes. Building on the fact that the solar industry creating one out of every 50 jobs in the country last year, solar advocates across the country should mine this information, hold solar town halls and explain to audiences across the country the importance of the industry to their regions and, most importantly, their neighbors. This gold mine should be immediately used to build national support, legislative district by legislative district, in support of the solar industry. Let the map be the guide When I moved to California to co-found Sunrun after fighting in Afghanistan, the solar industry was a small band of true believers -- no more than 5,000 strong.
GREENTECH MEDIA — My first political act was to join Vote Solar, which sent me a now-beloved t-shirt. My first lobbying meeting was at the California PUC, where I asked Polly Shaw to make the residential PPA eligible for the residential California Solar Initiative rebate, not the commercial one. A decade later, that small band has expanded to 270,000 Americans, who together have helped establish solar as the biggest source of new energy in the U.S. Since 2013, I have had the honor of leading the SEIA board of directors as its chairman and vice chairman, working with many members from all sectors of our industry to win critical policy fights and shape the future for solar and the technologies that complement it. Thank you to the board, the SEIA team and member companies for working together to make solar stronger. Next month marks the planned completion of my time as chairman, following a successful CEO selection and on-boarding of Abby Hopper, who is an outstanding leader for the SEIA team. Tom Starrs, vice chairman, dear friend and partner in leading the board, will become the acting chairman. Based on what I have learned over the last four years, please accept these recommendations for the future. 1. Create value We can all celebrate that solar is the largest source of new power generation in the U.S. and costs less than fossil fuels in many parts of the country. Consequently, solar installation growth continues across the industry, and more Americans are working in solar today than in nearly every other segment of the power industry. Solar is no longer an “alternative” energy source. The negative byproducts of fast growth and improving competitiveness are shrinking margins and over-leverage for some solar companies, resulting in headline bankruptcies, corporate restructuring and significant mergers. Historically, the solar industry was focused on driving down costs to achieve parity with (and then advantage over) fossil fuel competitors. By leveraging technology-driven cost structure improvements, we have largely accomplished that mission. Now we need to create better equities for investors to maximize this advantage. Efficiency improvements and capacity expansion will increase solar’s cost structure advantage, driving up volume and expanding markets. But it will also shrink absolute margins, intensifying the pressure to alter companies’ strategies and consolidate businesses where scale counts, especially in manufacturing, logistics and finance. The sooner solar companies adapt and change, the more economic value they will create. In our business, there are two greens. The first is making money. The second is improving the environment. The more money we make, the more we improve the environment, which will benefit all of us. 2. Support competition As long as we advocate for regulatory structures to support our businesses, we legitimize closed and semi-open markets dominated by incumbents. Once we can transition from regulated structures to competitively determined ones, our companies will move from policy fights where the battle space is designed and dominated by adversaries to competitive, open markets where the best solution wins. A future where are all markets are more like ERCOT may be even better for the U.S. solar industry than if all markets are like CAISO. An open electricity market is the road that allows solar to capitalize on its technology-driven, low-cost advantage and collaborate with essential enabling technologies. 3. Stand united Intermingled economic interests and expanding customer segments create more shared policy objectives among all solar companies. Working together, we are advancing the entire solar industry and enhancing our companies’ current interests as well as future opportunities. We all need to support policies that create future opportunities for the entire industry. We are all riding the “solar coaster.” The business model you have today is unlikely to be the business model you pursue tomorrow. The solar business model changes happening now are only the most recent twists in our industry’s evolution -- an evolution that happens more rapidly than in other industries because we are growing at a faster clip. Supporting policies that create new business opportunities across the industry "buys" real options for our individual companies. Buying options is an effective way to manage the volatility of the solar coaster and to maximize long-term equity value. If we were a mature industry (i.e., one with low growth and high penetration rates), fragmentation would make it difficult to have one national solar industry association because factions would fight over carving up a fixed pie (i.e., win-lose or lose-lose). However, we are the opposite. Today and for a long time in the foreseeable future, solar will be a growth industry with low penetration rates and huge market potential. That means solar companies can, should, and will pursue integrative (i.e., win-win) policies that support our entire industry. Independent of business model, technology type, position in the value chain, or customers served, the solar industry and our individual companies will grow faster and more profitably when we work together. 4. Build alliances While the solar industry continues to expand its investment in policy advocacy, including a 50 percent increase in SEIA revenues since 2013, our adversaries can still outspend us more than 10:1. In the future, the solar industry can invert this ratio by building and leveraging external alliances. Alliances are worth more than just dollars because they multiply legitimacy and political strength. Inter-industry, interest group, and grassroots alliances are essential to solar’s future political power. The solar century Just as coal dominated the 19th century and oil dominated the 20th, the fundamentals convince me that this is the solar century. No single country’s policies can stop solar from becoming the dominant source of energy in this century. If a national market disappeared today, then it would drive down the global cost of solar, increasing demand elsewhere. The sun will rise -- we just need to make sure it is shining on the American solar industry. THE NEW YORK TIMES — The International Energy Agency has predicted photovoltaic solar could provide up to 16 percent of the world’s electricity by midcentury — an enormous increase from the roughly 1 percent that solar generates today. But for solar to realize its potential, governments will have to grow up too. They’ll need to overhaul their solar policies to make them ruthlessly economically efficient.
The widespread view that solar power is a hopelessly subsidized business is quickly growing outdated. In some particularly sunny spots, such as certain parts of the Middle East, solar power now is beating fossil-fueled electricity on price without subsidies. Even where — as in the United States — solar needs subsidies, it’s getting cheaper. American utilities now are signing 20-year agreements to buy solar power at, and in some cases below, 5 cents per kilowatt-hour. Those prices, which reflect tax breaks, are in some instances low enough to compete with electricity from power plants that burn plentiful American natural gas. Solar will be all the more competitive if gas prices rise — something many predict — and as more governments impose prices on carbon dioxide emissions. The market is concluding that solar makes sense. In part that’s because of technological advances that have made solar cells more efficient in converting sunlight into power. In part it’s the result of manufacturing scale, which has slashed the cost of solar-panel production. And, in places that tax greenhouse-gas emissions, it’s in part because solar produces carbon-free power. But much more needs to be done. Ratcheting up solar to produce approximately 1 percent of global electricity has required a lot of technology and investment. Making solar big enough to matter environmentally would be an even more colossal undertaking. It would require plastering the ground and roofs with billions of solar panels. It would require significantly increasing energy storage, because solar panels crank out electricity only when the sun shines, which is why, today, solar often needs to be backed up by fossil fuels. And it would require adding more transmission lines, because often the places where the sun shines best aren’t where most people live. The scale of this challenge makes economic efficiency crucial, as we argue in a report, “The New Solar System,” released on Tuesday. The policies that have goosed solar have been often unsustainable and sometimes contradictory. One glaring example: With one hand, the United States is trying to make solar cheaper, through tax breaks, and with the other hand it’s making solar more expensive, through tariffs it has imposed on solar products imported from China, the world’s largest maker and installer of solar panels. The tariffs are prompting Chinese solar manufacturers to set up factories not in the United States, but in low-cost countries that aren’t subject to the levies. And the Chinese government has responded with its own tariffs against American-made solar goods. Those tariffs have eroded the United States share in the one part of solar manufacturing — polysilicon, the raw material for solar cells — in which America once had a significant role. That solar is now involved in a trade war is a sign of how far it has come. The United States developed the first solar cells in the 1950s and put them into space in the 1960s. Japan and Germany began putting big numbers of solar panels on rooftops in the 1990s. But solar power didn’t really advance into a real industry until a decade ago, when China stepped in. In the mid-2000s, stimulated by hefty solar subsidies in Europe, a handful of entrepreneurs in China started producing inexpensive solar panels, much as had been done in China before with T-shirts and televisions. These entrepreneurs bought equipment from manufacturers in Europe and the United States, built big factories with government subsidies, and got down to business cranking out millions of solar panels for export. Today, China utterly dominates global solar-panel manufacturing. Last year, according to the consulting firm IHS Markit, China accounted for 70 percent of global capacity for manufacturing crystalline-silicon solar panels, the most common type. The United States share was 1 percent. But now, China’s solar industry is changing in little-noticed ways that create both an imperative and an opportunity for the United States to up its game. The Chinese industry is innovating technologically — indeed, it’s starting to score world-record solar-cell efficiencies — contrary to a long-held myth that all China can do is manufacture others’ inventions cheaply. It’s expanding its manufacturing footprint across the globe. And it’s scrambling to import more efficient ways of financing solar power that have been pioneered in the West. The United States needs to take these shifts into account in defining an American solar strategy that minimizes the cost of solar power to the world while maximizing the long-term benefit to the American economy. A more-enlightened United States policy approach to solar would seek above all to continue slashing solar power’s costs — not to prop up types of American solar manufacturing that can’t compete globally. It would leverage, not aim to bury, China’s manufacturing superiority, with closer cooperation on solar research and development. And it would focus American solar subsidies more on research and development and deployment than on manufacturing. As solar manufacturing continues to automate, reducing China’s cheap-labor advantage, it is likely to make more sense in the United States, at least for certain sorts of solar products. The United States needs to play to its comparative advantages in the solar sector. That requires a sober assessment of what China does well. There are real tensions between China and the United States, including the tariff fight, doubts about the protection of intellectual property in China, and national-security concerns. But it’s time to put those concerns into perspective, as investors, corporations and governments try to do every day. These proposed shifts in American solar policy will upset partisans across the political spectrum. They will offend liberals who have promised that solar-manufacturing subsidies would bring the United States huge numbers of green factory jobs. They will rankle conservatives who see China as the enemy. How will the Trump administration view them? That’s unclear. President Trump has spoken approvingly of tariffs against China; as a presidential candidate, he criticized “China’s unfair subsidy behavior.” Yet his nominee to be ambassador to China, Gov. Terry Branstad of Iowa, has called the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, a friend and said a “cooperative relationship” between the two countries “is needed more now than ever.” Mr. Trump argued in his 2015 book, “Crippled America” (since retitled “Great Again”), that solar panels didn’t “make economic sense.” But he also wrote that, when solar energy “proves to be affordable and reliable in providing a substantial percent of our energy needs, then maybe it’ll be worth discussing.” That time has arrived. A smarter solar policy — one with a more-nuanced view of China — is something the new president ought to like. Solar isn’t just for the granola crowd anymore. It’s a global industry, and it’s poised to make a real environmental difference. Whether it delivers on that promise will depend on policy makers prodding it to become more economically efficient. That will require a shift both from those who have loved solar and from those who have laughed it off. When Google first launched a website two years ago that collects data on solar rooftops, called Project Sunroof, it only covered a few cities. But this week, the search engine giant announced the solar site is now crunching data for every single U.S. state, including 60 million rooftops across the country. GREENTECH MEDIA — The expansion means that Google’s Project Sunroof is starting to get a much clearer picture of how much rooftop solar capacity there actually is in the U.S. Project Sunroof uses data from Google Maps and Google Earth, combined with 3-D modeling and machine learning to determine the solar electricity potential of individual roofs. Potential solar customers -- or just the solar-curious -- can enter their addresses into the site and get information about how much a solar system on their roof might cost and how much money they might save over time by going solar. Google’s product manager Joel Conkling told GTM the goal of Project Sunroof is “to get data into the hands of people thinking about solar, and who are making decisions about solar.” He added that “the hope is [to] help people make more quantitative decisions about solar.” The large amount of data being collected by Google also means that the internet company’s project could be a helpful tool not only for consumers interested in solar, but also for solar companies looking to bring in new customers, as well as academic researchers and even utilities. Now that Project Sunroof's availability is countrywide, Google’s amassed data has started to reveal some interesting trends and information. For one thing, Google says that 79 percent of the rooftops it’s analyzed are viable for solar, which is good news for rooftop solar providers. That doesn’t mean that 79 percent of rooftops should or will adopt solar, though. Rather, it means that 79 percent technically get enough sun to be able to accommodate solar panels. That finding is likely a generous interpretation of the data. For comparison (though it’s not apples-to-apples), a National Renewable Energy Laboratory analysis from January 2016 -- arguably the best technical analysis to date -- found that the rooftop space on all buildings in the U.S. could generate about 39 percent of total national electricity sales. The NREL report, which uses data from lidar and software modeling, also found that a sunny state like California could generate 74 percent of the electricity sold by utilities in the state. Solar industry watchers know that sun potential is only a part of the equation for when a customer decides to go solar. Other major factors include state renewable energy targets, net metering rates, tax credits and available financing. While keeping that in mind, Project Sunroof still plays a role in exploring the upper end of what’s possible. Google’s Conkling says Project Sunroof is specifically meant to report on the technical potential of solar. Google does include economic data in its solar price quote for users based on address and ZIP code. But Project Sunroof does not offer a comprehensive view of the rooftop solar market. When it comes to super-sunny states, like Hawaii, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada, 90 percent of rooftops are viable, according to Google. States like Pennsylvania, Maine and Minnesota have just slightly more than 60 percent viability. The mention of Nevada’s blockbuster solar potential could be a kick in the gut for solar companies that were once operating robust rooftop PV businesses in the state. Those companies left Nevada after utility regulators changed the rates and fees for solar customers, making it far less economical. SolarCity saw its Nevada solar roof business fall off a cliff in 2016 after the policy change. Hawaii, which has a state goal to have 100 percent clean energy by 2045, has also been growing its number of solar roofs at a rapid clip. However, in 2015, the state also changed its rate structure, leading to slower rooftop solar growth since then. The city with the most solar potential is Houston, Texas, says Google, with an opportunity to generate close to 19 gigawatt-hours of electricity from solar rooftops per year. Houston, of course, already hosts a huge energy industry presence of oil and gas, and Texas has the largest wind energy industry in the U.S. Perhaps rooftop solar could take off there, too. There are only two California locations on Google’s top 10 list of cities with the most solar potential -- Los Angeles and San Diego. California currently accounts for a large portion of all the installed solar in the U.S. on both rooftops and in those sprawling utility-scale ground deployments. Google says that if these top 10 cities were able to reach their potential, they would be able to generate enough electricity to power 8 million homes. So what’s holding these cities back? Likely a mix of policy, economics and financing, as well as a lack of information, education and interest.
The big nationwide solar companies have been spending exorbitant amounts of money marketing to customers and trying to close solar deals, which can be difficult. SolarCity plans to cut those costs a lot this year after its acquisition by Tesla, which is a nationally known brand and led by tech celebrity Elon Musk. Project Sunroof can help with the marketing process by sending leads to solar installers like Vivint Solar, SolarCity and Sunrun. Google’s Conkling says that Google doesn’t currently make any money on generating leads for these companies and at this point has no plans to make Project Sunroof more commercially oriented. But like all data-based models, Google’s methodology seems to have some limitations. Google's aerial imagery is used to estimate the solar potential, but, as Google admits, that data is not always entirely precise or up-to-date. Newer buildings may not be included, and large building-like objects, like bridges, could be mistakenly included. Some roof obstacles like vents are also too small to be seen by the satellite image data, says Google. The biggest limitation of the model is that it doesn’t include economic factors in its overall solar comparison (it does in its individual price estimates). Solar is highly dependent on a variety of factors beyond just how much sun falls on a roof. Conkling says Project Sunroof is meant to be just one part of the equation about solar data. While Conkling wouldn’t speculate on future plans for Project Sunroof, he said: “We feel like we’ve put some good data and tools out there...but there’s a lot more that we can do for people who are exploring solar.” SIERRA CLUB — The state capital and college town is the 25th US city to commit to the transition away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy following Tuesday’s city council vote. The vote allocated $250,000 to develop a plan by January 18, 2018 for city operations to achieve goals of 100 percent renewable energy and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors, including electricity, heating and transportation.
“Madison’s historic commitment to 100 percent clean energy shows that we are determined to lead the way in moving beyond fossil fuels that threaten our health and environment,” Madison Common Council Alder Zach Wood said in a statement. “The benefits of a transition to 100 percent clean energy are many. These goals will drive a clean energy economy that creates local jobs, provides affordable and sustainable electricity, and results in cleaner air and water. I am proud to be a part of this council that has made the historic commitment that will lead our community to a more sustainable future.” Abita Springs, Louisiana also voted on Tuesday to transition to 100 percent clean, renewable energy. The Sierra Club said that Madison and Abita Springs both committing to 100 percent clean energy demonstrates that there is bipartisan support across the country for a renewable energy future because liberal Madison voted for Hillary Clinton while conservative voters in Abita Springs went for Donald Trump. “Transitioning to 100 percent renewable energy is a practical decision we’re making for our environment, our economy, and for what our constituents want in Abita Springs,” Greg Lemons, mayor of Abita Springs, said in a statement. “Politics has nothing to do with it for me. Clean energy just makes good economic sense. By establishing a 100 percent renewable energy goal, we have an opportunity to use solar power that we can control in our community, for our community. Clean energy is a way that we can save money for Abita Springs both today and in the future.” Other American cities that have made the 100 percent renewable energy pledge include Burlington, Vermont; Aspen, Colorado; the California cities of San Diego, San Francisco and San Jose; Rochester, Minnesota; St. Petersburg, Florida; Grand Rapids, Michigan; East Hampton, New York; Greensburg, Kansas; and Georgetown, Texas. |
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